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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

graduates in teaching, this would mean one such teacher to every 68 children aged 5 to 14. If Singapore's ratio were applicable, there would be only one teacher for every 102 such children.
In such situations, the limited supply of teachers would clearly prevent the immediate enrollment of all children aged 5 to 14. A less than immediate but very rapid rise toward universal education might also prove unattainable, because it might require an unrealistically high wage incentive to attract enough of the small group of potential teachers into teaching. But if expansion of enrollment rates were not pushed too hard-if the date for reaching universal education at ages 5 to 14 were set, say, 15 or 20 years hence-the situation would not appear so grim, because the output of students with 4 years' secondary education would increase much faster during that period than the number of children aged 5 to 14.
The foregoing example is no more than illustrative because the situation varies very widely between countries. India and some countries of Latin America are now producing more secondary school and university graduates than their economies can currently absorb in the types of jobs or at the rates of pay that they expect. Other countries, notably many in tropical Africa, are worse off than our hypothetical country in regard to teacher supply, because their secondary education system was very limited even a decade or two ago.* Many are still forced to rely heavily on expatriate staff at the secondary level, and a few at the primary level. For example, in Papua-New Guinea, expatriate teachers constitute 58 percent of the total teaching service, and although they supply almost the entire secondary teaching force, most of them are teaching in the primary schools (28). In most African countries, expatriate teachers are not required at the primary level, but in secondary schools expatriates constituted 63 percent of teachers in Uganda (1966), 33 percent in Ghana (1967-68), 93 percent in the Ivory Coast (1965) and 90 percent in Zambia (1968) (29, 30, 31, 32) t
Secondary Education
Shortages of educated manpower are clearly serious enough in some countries to make the achievement of universal primary and lower secondary education in the very near future quite inconceivable. But the very rapid achievement of universal education is not an option anyway, because of budgetary and logistic considerations. What is normally aimed for is a steady
*In 1950, out of a very restricted total school enrollment in Africa, only 8 percent were in secondary schools. The corresponding proportions at the same date were 10 percent in Latin America, 19 percent in Asia, and more than 20 percent in the western countries.
1 For data on some other African countries, see (12, p. 195).the school-age population is substantially greater than that of lowered mortality in raising them, because in most cases death rates are already low while fertility remains high. The extent to which this potential will be realized willio of private expenditure to public expenditure on education varies between countries. There is unfortunately a dearth of intercountry comparative information on private expenditures on education.al-urban migration, in the multilingual character of the society, in the existence of polygamy, and